Prescient Private Clients Managed Comment - Mar 14 - Fund Manager Comment27 May 2014
The Precient Private Clients Managed Fund returned 1.158% for March and the fund's benchmark returned 2.425%.
The Crimea has formed a tangled part of Europe's history and the Crimean War of 1853 to 1856 involved the Russian, French, British and Ottoman Empires. Russia's most recent annexation of Crimea after the political instability in Ukraine is unsurprising given the strategic importance of Sevastopol as a warm water port and home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet (The Russian Empire first annexed the Crimean Khanate in 1783.) Russian oil and gas makes up around 30% of the EU's energy imports and any significant disruption to these supplies would be a significant negative supply side shock to the European economy.
Copper and iron ore prices came under pressure during March from slower Chinese growth and growing physical stockpiles. The opaque nature of China's credit markets includes the proliferation of trade financing, trust products and corporate debt which has contributed to China's overall debt-to-GDP ratio increasing from around 120% to over 200% in the last five years. China's authorities face a significant challenge to restrain credit markets while maintaining economic growth. The recent signs of stress in China's credit markets including the spikes in short term money market rates and trust product defaults are a cause for concern.
The Fund has long held a position in JSE Limited and the holding was increased during February and March. The JSE has a very strong franchise as the only equity and derivatives securities market operator in South Africa. The company is both a 'network' business and operates in a highly regulated environment which creates high barriers to entry for potential competitors. The business has a largely fixed cost based with revenue through increased financial market activity levels and new capital expenditures, making the business highly cash generative. R&D costs for certain new products are also effectively out-sourced to customers, for example ETF (Exchange Traded fund) listings where the South African market still has significant room for growth.
The Fund's top holdings are Anglo Platinum, Anglogold, Impala Platinum and JSE Limited and we continue to see attractive value in these companies.