Prescient Private Clients Managed Comment - Sep 18 - Fund Manager Comment19 Dec 2018
The Long Beach Flexible Prescient Fund returned -1.07% for November, the fund's benchmark returned =0.27% and the FTSE All Share Index 0.29%.
The SARB increased the repo rate by 0.25% in the November, against the backdrop of inflation which is within thebank's target range, and a stagnant SA economy with extraordinarily high levels of unemployment. International oil prices have declined materially from the highs of early October, while the US Fed is moving fom tightening towards a more neutral rate stance. In South Africa the factors which are contributing to upside inflation risks are supply side factors, little impacted by the repo rate, and the SARB's pre-emptive rate increase is unlikely to have much benefit beyond further supressing already weak demand in the economy.
Global Markets remain hostage to Trump and China's ongoing trade negotiations, and while it is difficult to anticipate the outcome, Trump does seem to be more of an expedient opportunist wersus a principled ideologue in his ambitions. If this is an accurate assessment, a deal or detente continues to be the most likely outcome, notwithstanding the current ruckus, while the major risks to the global economy continue to be any unintended consequences of Trump's fractious approach.
The Long Beach Flexible Prescient Fund's offshore holdings continue to be fully invested in global equities. The fund's local holdings are now balanced between local SA companies which are attractively valued., global companies with attractive earnings growth prospects, and UK listed property. The fund maintains a strong preference for large cap companies which have a sound balance sheet and an attractive business franchise.