Long Beach Managed Prescient Comment - Dec 22 - Fund Manager Comment06 Mar 2023
The Fed is likely committing a new policy error with an overly aggressive interest rate policy. Inflation shows clear signs of having peaked and growth is slowing notably, with contraction readings for both the ISM manufacturing and services indices (ISM purchasing managers' indices). While the Fed holds up the job market as being strong, employment data is lagging and shows a deceleration with slowing wages growth. The companies in which the fund is invested are in most instances benefitting from structural growth trends, digital payments, travel and remote work, digital commerce, cloud computing, cyber security, and digital entertainment. As aggregate economic growth slows, companies with structural growth are likely to be rewarded, in particular as interest rate and inflation fears recede. The current negative market sentiment provides investors with a notable opportunity for long-term growth and returns. The fund is invested in global and SA equities, in particular technology and communication services companies with good secular revenue growth prospects, experienced management, high gross margins (pricing power) and little to no debt. The fund also holds equity ETFs, UK property and SA fixed income. The fund has adhered to its policy objective. The fund's asset allocation is broadly similar to 30 September 2022.